Articles

Thermal trajectories of French lakes in response to climate change: monitoring and prediction

Rosalie BRUEL, Najwa SHARAF, Olivia DESGUE-ITIER, Jordi PRATS, Nathalie REYNAUD, Tiphaine PEROUX, Thierry TORMOS, Pierre-Alain DANIS, Jean-Philippe JENNY
Received : 23 April 2026; Published : 22 May 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20870/Revue-SET.2026.51.10051

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Abstract

Temperature is a key driver of the functioning, chemical dynamics, and ecological balance of lakes. Observations nevertheless confirm a widespread trend of rising surface water temperatures under the influence of climate change. However, this warming follows different trajectories depending on the hydro-morpho-climatic context of each lake. Thermal fluctuations and warming pathways therefore need to be characterized using long and reliable time series in order to assess and anticipate their impacts. Yet, such records are rarely available. For several years, the Research & Development center on lake ecosystems (Pôle R&D ECLA, France) has been working to advance knowledge on these issues by combining high-frequency in situ measurements, satellite observations, and modeling. This article provides an overview of the main approaches implemented and highlights several key results from recent years: simulations and dissemination of epilimnion and hypolimnion temperatures for 401 lakes over a 60-year period, the development of indicators, simulations and projections of thermal trajectories for four large natural lakes up to 2100, and the integration of water quality parameters into future predictions.

Authors

Rosalie BRUEL

rosalie.bruel@ofb.gouv.fr

Affiliation : OFB, Direction de la Recherche et de l’Appui Scientifique, Service EcoAqua, Thonon-les-Bains / Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 75 bis avenue de Corzent, 74203 Thonon-les-Bains / Pôle R&D ECLA

Country : France

Najwa SHARAF

Affiliation : Aix-Marseille Univ., INRAE, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence / Pôle R&D ECLA

Country : France

Olivia DESGUE-ITIER

Affiliation : Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 75 bis avenue de Corzent, 74203 Thonon-les-Bains / Pôle R&D ECLA

Country : France

Jordi PRATS

Affiliation : SEGULA Technologies, Ctra. de l’Hospitalet 147-149, 08940 Cornellà de Llobregat

Country : Spain

Nathalie REYNAUD

Affiliation : Aix-Marseille Univ., INRAE, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence / Pôle R&D ECLA

Country : France

Tiphaine PEROUX

Affiliation : Aix-Marseille Univ., INRAE, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence / Pôle R&D ECLA

Country : France

Thierry TORMOS

Affiliation : OFB, Direction de la Recherche et de l’Appui Scientifique, Service EcoAqua, Thonon-les-Bains /Aix-Marseille Univ., INRAE, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence / Pôle R&D ECLA

Country : France

Pierre-Alain DANIS

Affiliation : OFB, Direction de la Recherche et de l’Appui Scientifique, Service EcoAqua, Thonon-les-Bains / Pôle R&D ECLA

Country : France

Jean-Philippe JENNY

Affiliation : Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 75 bis avenue de Corzent, 74203 Thonon-les-Bains / Pôle R&D ECLA

Country : France

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