Articles

Quantitative approaches to future water needs: benefits, limitations and perspectives

David DORCHIES, Gilles BELAUD
Received : 28 August 2026; Published : 16 October 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20870/Revue-SET.2026.52.10378

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Abstract

The quantification of future water needs is an essential tool for informing water management decisions, but it faces significant methodological and practical limitations. This article examines the quantitative approaches used in territorial prospective studies, from available observational data to models simulating water uses. It highlights gaps in existing data on withdrawals and consumption, as well as constraints related to representing hydrological and socio-economic processes. Different families of models are reviewed, from simplified FAO-CropWat approaches to integrated modeling coupling biophysical dynamics and human decisions. Identified perspectives include opening up data, enabling territorial stakeholders to appropriate these tools, and resolving scientific bottlenecks to better integrate uncertainties into decision support.

Authors

David DORCHIES

david.dorchies@inrae.fr

Affiliation : G-EAU, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, BRGM, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier

Country : France

Gilles BELAUD

Affiliation : G-EAU, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, BRGM, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier

Country : France

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