Meat production and the space occupation after the BSE crisis: an attempt at foresight reflections

Abstract

French beef is produced under different systems which vary in terms of the type of herd (dairy herds, suckling herds, etc.) and the socio-economic place that they occupy within the farms, the land and the regional context. The crisis caused by bovine spongiform encephalopathy (mad cow disease) has prec-ipitated and amplified another impending crisis concerning the structure of the industry. However, it seems to have stimulated a demand for the production of grass-fed quality beef. This situation raises new questions and reveals complex interactions which may lead to profound changes in rural land usage across France. Against this background, this article contributes to the assessment of these risks by proposing forecasting principles and possible outcome scenarios. This work forms the basis of a discussion which could subsequently incorporate other variables and lead to strategies tailored to suit the different production systems and specific regional socio-economic features.