Diagnosis and analysis of risks linked to the ageing of dams - Development of methods to assist expertise

Abstract

Diagnosis and risk analysis are essential to insure safety of dams in operation. In this field, powerful methods have been produced and provide useful aids in modelling, simulation, statistical analysis, reliability, etc. However it is necessary to use the expert's judgement judgment when the works are complex and unique, when data is imprecise or insufficient, and when a preliminary diagnosis or detailed analysis is being made. Using their experience and knowledge, experts are able to provide answers and recommendations to a specific problem. The authors propose methods to support expert diagnosis and risk analysis. The main goal is to capitalise on the expert's knowledge and feedback and to build up database of dam pathologies and database of ageing case histories. This work uses reliability techniques and qualitative reasoning models. In terms of practical applications, the research produced a knowledge database on dam pathologies, and an ageing history database was compiled from dams having experienced deterioration. Computer aids to assist experts in the diagnostic and risk analysis tasks are under development.