Between banalization and extinction, what future for the "pays"? Some foresight elements

Abstract

During the last decades, the reform of French local government came through decentralization and institutional cooperation. One of the institutional devices of this reform has been the creation of "pays", a loose territorial cooperation frame in which several municipalities had to discuss common objectives and to define implementation plans. Based on a forecasting studies methodology, the paper proposes to examine the potential evolution of this institutional level. We examine the main factors shaping the evolution of French local institutions and suggest and discuss five scenarios for the future of the "pays", reflecting the respective weight of different authorities and the general dynamics of local government.