Évolution des consommations d'énergie dans les scénarios Agriculture Énergie 2030 et enseignements tirés des chiffrages

Abstract

The four scenarios from the foresight exercise Agriculture Énergie 2030 and the Climagri simulations corresponding to each one of these scenarios show that energy issues in agriculture relate to both direct and indirect inputs into farm production processes. The scenarios also show that without any mobilization from stakeholders or adequate public policies, the dependence on fossil fuels of French agriculture will remain strong, although technological progress will contribute to improve energy balances in all scenarios. Three principal agronomic issues are highlighted: crop fertilization, imports of concentrated animal feedstock (and thus protein self-sufficiency of French agriculture), and agricultural fuel consumption. Furthermore, biogas production emerges as a win-win-win solution as it enables fuel production, reduction of methane emissions and supply of a by-product that can substitute for nitrogen-based fertilizers.