Modeling land use and cover change for land planning decision-support

Abstract

In the past two decades, the modeling and projection of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) has become a tool of choice in the analysis of the environmental pressures produced by human activity on ecosystems. As such, this type of modeling constitutes a relevant tool for the analysis of territorial planning policies, especially with the evaluation or anticipation of environmental impacts in mind.The ESNET project (Ecosystem Services NETworks) broaches these topics on a territory encompassing about two thirds of the Isère département. We have produced a LUCC model at the 2040 horizon, designed to account for the three characteristic dynamics of the territory: urban sprawl, changes of agricultural practices and changes in forest management. The model displays contrasted evolution patterns resulting from underlying planning choices, most notably in what concerns urban sprawl and forest expansion for the most contrasted scenarios. This article presents LUCC modeling in rather generic terms, illustrated with some results obtained on our specific study area. We will also briefly discuss the usefulness of this type of models for decision-aid in public policy planning exercises.