What are the effects of urban dynamics on ecological dynamics? Integrating the challenges of the mitigation hierarchy into land use planning using modeling, application to the Occitanie region.

Abstract

The significant development of the mitigation hierarchy in France has not necessarily been followed by a good application, which has encountered many practical difficulties. The lack of vision and territorial coordination is often blamed for this. Anticipated land use planning seems crucial to better consider the challenges of the mitigation hierarchy. Various initiatives led by different actors are gradually emerging in this direction in France. In this context, the Occitanie region wished to adopt a regional strategy for the application of the mitigation hierarchy. The objective of this research is to support public decision-makers in determining land use change processes, mainly urban dynamics, in order to assess their impacts on biodiversity. The originality of this work lies in the analysis of the combined effects of ecological and urban dynamics in different types of development scenarios that consume more or less space. A prospective modeling and simulation approach applied to the Montpellier Méditerranée Métropole study area has enabled us to emphasize the importance of decisions regarding planning policy choices and biodiversity conservation. Beyond this research, the questions raised open up broader fields of reflection on desirable and possible modes of development in a context of global change.