Articles
The PastSatAb project to reconstruct time series of abundance and exploitation rates of Atlantic salmon in France
Received : 23 January 2025;
Published : 5 June 2025
References
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Abstract
The PastSatAb project, led by the OFB-INRAE-Institut Agro-UPPA research group for the management of diadromous migratory species in their environment (MIAME), aims to reconstruct time series of salmon abundance and exploitation rates in France to provide inputs for the stock assessment models developed by the Working Group on North Atlantic Salmon (WGNAS) of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). An integrated Bayesian modeling approach was implemented, combining heterogeneous data on catches, abundance (regional or local), and salmon habitat area to make the best use of available knowledge.
The developed hierarchical Bayesian model enabled the reconstruction of time series of abundance and exploitation rates, by sea-age classes, over the period from 1970 to 2020 for the five major regions hosting salmon populations: the North, Brittany, Loire-Allier, Garonne-Dordogne, and Adour.
By integrating data and expertise at the regional scale, the project highlighted the regional diversity in population and exploitation dynamics. The aggregation of these regional dynamics at a national scale provides a new perspective on abundance trends, particularly regarding the decline of salmon with a short marine residency, which appears to be less pronounced than previously estimated.
Adjustments are needed to use these new estimates as inputs for the WGNAS stock assessment models. A methodological approach will have to be implemented to update the model's estimates annually, in a context where the data required to produce the estimates may become increasingly scarce.
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