Identifying Vulnerabilities in the Rhône-Mediterranean and Adour-Garonne River Basins to Better Adapt to Climate Change
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Abstract
Under the influence of climate change, the Rhône Mediterranean and Adour-Garonne river basins are undergoing a marked transformation of their hydrological regimes, characterized by rising temperatures, seasonal redistribution of both precipitations and river flows. These changes exacerbate territorial vulnerabilities related to water resource availability and quality, the preservation of aquatic ecosystems, and the security of human uses. The study presented here proposes an integrated methodology for characterizing vulnerability, based on the combination of an exposure score, derived from hydroclimatic projections of the Explore2 project, and a sensitivity score, generally established from territorial diagnostics provided by the SDAGE. The analysis, conducted at the sub-basin scale, enables the assessment of relative vulnerabilities for various issues: depletion of surface and groundwater resources, deterioration of water quality, soil drying, loss of aquatic habitats, and amplification of hydrological risks. Despite the uncertainties associated with modelling and the assumption of socio-economic stability, this approach provides a reproducible and operational framework for adaptation planning. It offers a robust methodological basis for prioritizing interventions, strengthening territorial resilience, and guiding public policies for climate change adaptation.