From public debate to the delicate implementation of an action strategy: Lessons from the "Massif des Landes de Gascogne à l'horizon 2050" forecasting exercise

Abstract

Since the 1990s, territorial foresight has developed strongly in the wake of decentralization and the accentuation of uncertainties and risks, which weigh on territories. Yet this increased use of the foresight tool is not always exempt from ambiguity. It calls into question the intertwining between a forward-looking approach, which envisages a plurality of futures, and public policies aimed at the treatment of a short-term problem. To contribute to this debate, the article suggests returning to the foresight "Massif des Landes de Gascogne à l'horizon 2050", which answers a request of support for the territorial action following storm Klaus (2009) and a research agenda on options for forest adaptation to climate change. By structuring their reflection around a theory of political change, the authors highlight the advantage of a foresight approach to rethink issues, to foster public debate and to define adaptation strategies. However, the exercise conducted in the Landes de Gascogne area, where the territory tends to merge with the forest, also shows the difficulty of going beyond the scope of interventions and coalitions of established actors to implement new compromises and ways of coordination.