Anticipating and quantifying the possible future(s) for water management in the Durance-Verdon basin

Abstract

Integrating water management models and foresight scenarios developed with the involvement of local experts and stakeholders raises numerous challenges. However, such integration can shed light on long-term challenges for sustainable water management, in particular in the context of a highly uncertain future related to climate change impact, population growth and economic development. This integration was applied within the French national research project R²D² 2050 (Risk, water Resources and sustainable Development within the Durance river basin in 2050) to assess future water availability and potential risks of unsatisfied water demands. The results of the R²D² 2050 project could help decision makers to define adaptation strategies that can support economic development while preserving the natural capital of the Durance basin. The main steps followed for developing territorial foresight scenarios are presented, along with conclusions on future balances between water availability and demand from the main water uses.