Le rôle de la prospective dans le lancement d'une politique de développement des énergies marines renouvelables en France de 2000 à 2015

Abstract

The influence of foresight analysis in decision-making process is controversial, which justifies trying to identify this influence in a real case: the launching the French industry of marine renewable energies (MREs) from 2000 to 2013. It is first crucial to list the "actors" involved in this case: stakeholders such as industry, research, regional bodies, think tanks, Government, literature, international organizations. The position of each actor is then screened yearly through five types of position: neutral, oppositional, inconclusive, interested and supportive. The specific influence of foresight studies and think tanks can then be tracked over the years. Results show three main phases: firstly, industry and research record studies and tests. Integrated foresight studies appear mainly in the second phase, linking research, industry and politics (2008-2009). The Ifremer foresight study and the synchronic Ipanema think tank give numerous justifications of MREs development to decision-makers. The third phase is the time for calls, projects and industry initiatives. In fact, foresight played a modest role in decision process but revealed a double usefulness as a function: (1) it helped elaborating an objective and collective approach to the issue, (2) as a "flag" of a think tank, it proposed ways for partnerships. This justifies defining this type of foresight as a "Consensus catalyst for dialogue, proposals and partnership".